As the college football season enters its final weeks, the playoff picture becomes increasingly complex. While Texas is not in the SEC yet, their impending move to the conference in 2024 looms over discussions about their playoff viability. For now, their immediate concern lies in securing a Big 12 Championship berth and keeping their College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes alive. But what happens if the Longhorns stumble in Week 13 against Texas Tech?
Here’s a breakdown of the SEC Championship Game scenarios, what Texas’ playoff hopes look like, and how a loss in Week 13 could indirectly affect SEC teams vying for the CFP.
1. Impact on SEC Teams
Texas holds a unique position in this year’s playoff race, primarily due to their marquee early-season victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. That win remains one of the most significant non-conference victories of the season and gives Texas an edge in head-to-head comparisons with Alabama.
However, if Texas loses to Texas Tech, their résumé takes a significant hit. A two-loss Texas team would likely be eliminated from CFP contention, opening the door for Alabama to bolster its case. If Alabama wins the SEC Championship by defeating Georgia, their chances of making the playoff as a one-loss SEC champion would increase substantially without Texas in the picture.
2. Georgia’s Path Remains Steady
The Georgia Bulldogs, who have already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, are likely to secure a playoff berth regardless of the outcome in Atlanta. A Texas loss would solidify Georgia’s standing even further, as it removes another team with a strong head-to-head victory over an SEC power.
If Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game, they are a lock for the CFP as the No. 1 seed. But if Alabama defeats Georgia, the committee would have to weigh a one-loss Alabama as SEC champion against other contenders, such as an undefeated Big Ten or Pac-12 champion. Without Texas complicating the equation, Alabama’s chances improve significantly.
1. Texas Wins Out
If Texas beats Texas Tech in Week 13 and wins the Big 12 Championship, they remain in strong contention for a playoff spot. Their victory over Alabama looms large, especially if the SEC Championship Game results in chaos.
For example, if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the committee would have to decide between including two SEC teams (Georgia and Alabama) or selecting a one-loss Texas team with a conference championship and a head-to-head win over Alabama. In this scenario, Texas would have a legitimate shot at leapfrogging Alabama, especially if their Big 12 Championship performance is dominant.
2. Texas Loses to Texas Tech
A loss to Texas Tech, however, would severely damage Texas’ chances. Not only would it eliminate them from the Big 12 Championship race, but it would also remove a potential roadblock for the SEC. With Texas out of the picture, the committee could more easily justify including both Georgia and Alabama in the CFP if Alabama wins the SEC Championship.
This scenario would also impact the broader playoff race. It would strengthen the cases of teams like Washington, Michigan, or Ohio State while narrowing the field of potential challengers to the SEC’s dominance.
3. Chaos in the CFP Picture
A Texas loss could contribute to one of the most chaotic CFP scenarios in recent history. Imagine this:
– Alabama defeats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
– Michigan or Ohio State suffers an upset in the Big Ten Championship.
– Florida State loses the ACC title game.
– Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship.
In this case, the committee would have to sort through multiple one-loss or two-loss teams. A two-loss Texas team might still factor into the discussion, but their chances would be slim compared to the SEC champion, an undefeated Big Ten team, and the Pac-12 champion.
For now, Texas controls its own destiny, but a Week 13 loss to Texas Tech would throw a wrench into the CFP picture, with ripple effects for the SEC Championship. Alabama would benefit the most from a Texas loss, as it would remove a significant competitor in the committee’s deliberations.
As Texas prepares for its move to the SEC in 2024, the stakes this season couldn’t be higher. A loss to Texas Tech would not only cost them a shot at the Big 12 Championship but also provide clarity for the SEC’s playoff hopes, giving Alabama and Georgia more breathing room in their quest for national glory.