Don’t Trust What the Experts Say on Recruiting: Here’s Why
Recruiting in college sports is one of the most scrutinized aspects of a program’s success. From highly touted five-star recruits to the under-the-radar diamonds in the rough, analysts and recruiting experts are quick to make bold predictions about the next wave of future stars. These experts spend countless hours analyzing tape, evaluating high school stats, and offering insights on which recruits will thrive at the next level. However, despite their expertise, the truth is that when it comes to recruiting, we often need to take the experts’ opinions with a grain of salt.
Recruiting is a complex and unpredictable process that doesn’t always follow the script predicted by the so-called “experts.” While their evaluations are often based on solid data and years of experience, the reality is that not all five-star athletes translate to success in college sports, and many three- or even two-star players outperform expectations. Here’s why you should be cautious about blindly trusting what the experts say on recruiting.
One of the most significant reasons to be skeptical of expert opinions is the unpredictability of player development. A recruit’s talent is only one part of the equation. When a high school athlete enters a college program, they’re thrust into a completely different world — from the level of competition to the physical and mental demands of college athletics. A player who might have been dominant in high school might struggle to adjust to the faster pace, higher intensity, or more complicated systems at the collegiate level.
Conversely, athletes who don’t necessarily shine in high school may flourish in the right environment. College coaching staffs can help unlock the potential of players who weren’t highly recruited but possess the right work ethic, mindset, or innate skills that were previously overlooked. While experts can assess raw talent and athleticism, predicting the rate at which a player will develop is notoriously difficult. As a result, recruits who are touted as future stars don’t always meet expectations, while others exceed them in surprising ways.
Recruiting rankings often carry an inherent level of subjectivity. Different scouting services, from ESPN to 247Sports to Rivals, can have varying criteria for evaluating players. Some may weigh physical traits like size and speed, while others may prioritize football IQ or performance in key games. Even when recruiting experts watch the same tape, they may interpret what they see differently.
This subjectivity is especially apparent in sports like basketball, where a player’s ability to perform in a high-pressure environment can be just as important as their raw athletic skills. A player who thrives in the right system or has great chemistry with a coach may be seen as a better fit than a five-star recruit with similar physical attributes but less versatility.
Additionally, bias can influence rankings. Media coverage, social media, and high-profile camps often have an outsized impact on how recruits are evaluated. An athlete from a prestigious high school program or one who plays in a region with more media attention may be ranked higher than a similarly skilled player from a smaller school or less-covered region. These biases can cloud objective evaluations and create inflated or deflated rankings that don’t always align with a player’s true potential.
The recruiting landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. One of the biggest shifts has been the introduction of the transfer portal, which allows players to change schools more freely than ever before. This means that a program’s roster is no longer entirely shaped by high school recruiting classes. Transfers can have just as much, if not more, of an impact on a team’s success as freshmen recruits.
In addition, NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals are reshaping the way recruits make their decisions. Financial incentives, relationships with agents, and personal brand development have all become important factors in a recruit’s decision-making process. The traditional methods of evaluating talent and making predictions about college success may not take these new realities into account, which can further distort expert opinions.
A recruit’s success is often determined by how well they fit into the system and culture of a specific team. The best athletes in the world may struggle in a program with a coaching style that doesn’t suit their strengths. A five-star recruit might not thrive in a system that emphasizes defense over offense, or they might clash with a coach’s style. On the other hand, players who might not have been heavily recruited can shine when placed in the right situation where they are coached to their strengths.
This is why some players, who were under-recruited out of high school, go on to have stellar college careers. Coaches who are adept at developing talent and tailoring their systems to the players they have can turn even modest recruits into key contributors.
One of the pitfalls of the recruiting industry is the tendency to over-hype prospects, especially those with flashy highlight reels. Highlight tapes can often show only the most impressive plays, giving an incomplete picture of a player’s overall abilities. This leads to inflated rankings, where a recruit is viewed as a “can’t-miss” prospect, even though they might have limitations that weren’t fully exposed in their high school footage.
It’s not uncommon to see players who were once considered top recruits struggle in college, while others who were overlooked soar to great heights. In some cases, over-hyping prospects can create unnecessary pressure that affects their development and performance.
The mental and emotional aspect of a recruit’s growth is difficult to quantify, but it can be just as important as physical ability. A player’s resilience, maturity, and ability to handle adversity often determine whether they succeed at the next level. These qualities can be nearly impossible to assess until a player faces the challenges of college life. Some recruits adapt quickly, while others struggle with the pressure of academics, the social scene, and the demands of their sport.
While recruiting experts undoubtedly provide valuable insights, it’s important to recognize that predictions are not foolproof. The dynamic and unpredictable nature of college athletics means that star rankings and expert opinions don’t always translate into success on the field or court. Athletes grow, develop, and adapt at different rates, and many factors beyond talent alone influence a recruit’s career. As fans and analysts, we should appreciate the uncertainties of recruiting and avoid putting too much stock in rankings that may not always tell the full story. In the end, it’s the coaches, the systems, and the athletes themselves who will ultimately determine success.