After a disappointing 39-43 campaign in 2023-24, the Vegas bookmakers have soured further on the Chicago Bulls for the upcoming season and have pegged them at a paltry 28.5 win average across several sites.
Vegas knows what they are doing, but they don’t necessarily get it right all the time. Last year the Detroit Pistons were projected to win 28.5 and ended up with abysmal 14 wins. On the other hand, the likes of the Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers were 9 games or better than the prediction.
Why is 29 wins reasonable prediction
Leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan and all world defensive talent, Alex Caruso have left for what seems greener pastures. Two key pieces for a team that has struggled to be consistent over the last several years and with the departure backup big man Andre Drummond, the Bulls have lost a significant veteran presence in the clubhouse.
To fill the void left by the recent departures will be the young core of Josh Giddey, Chris Duarte, Jalen Smith, and draft pick Matus Buzelis. In the NBA it is a fine line. There is a need for a veteran presence, but it must be balanced with not becoming too old. The 10 game drop-off predicted for the Bulls is most likely based on two conditions.
Why is 29 wins too high for the Chicago Bulls
It is not clear where the Bulls will make up the production of specifically DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. If a healthy Zach LaVine returns, it will help. The Bulls are counting on the young core to all grow and fill the void. It might be possible, but also might be wishful thinking.
On top of the production isssues, is the frontline depth question that did not get full addressed in the offseason. With the loss of Drummond and aging Vooch, Jalen Smith will play a critical role as it is not clear who else will be able to fill minutes in the role.
As previsouly noted, the Bulls defense will be a major question mark with the loss of defensive stalwart, Alex Caruso. Currently, it is not clear if the Bulls will have a player that will be a stopper and go against the NBA elite. It is hard to envision a Giddey, White, LaVine and Vooch starting lineup would be anything, but among the league’s worse defensive lineups.
If the Bulls are to remain in contention for a playoff spot, then Zach LaVine will need to have a huge bounce back year. If Zach LaVine wants out of Chicago, then he needs to have a huge bounce back year. There has been much reported on the fractured relationship which could complicate matters on multiple fronts as LaVine will collect over $136 million the next three years whether he performs well or not.
Why is 29 wins too low
Billy Donovan is an experienced coach that will try to put his team in the best position to win. Donovan knows that part of his gig this year is to develop his young core, but Donovan’s competitive spirit will be to try to win as many games as he can while trying to do that. In his nine seasons in the NBA, he has beat the Vegas win totals six times with surpassing win totals in three out of four years in Chicago.
Along with Donovan, Karnisovas does not appear ready to throw in the towel. He has retooled with experienced, but young NBA players to hedge his bet. He has filled most of the needs for the team to try to make them competitive, but not mortgage future financial flexibility or draft capital. Since Karnisovas has taken over the front office duties, he has tried to field the most competitive team on a daily basis to a fault. I do not expect mindset to change this season.
Zach LaVine is still pretty good and an all star level talent when healthy. Before Karnisovas made the Nikola Vucevic trade, Zach LaVine was the lead dog in the 2020-21 season. Up to the point of the trade, LaVine had led the Bulls to a 19-24 record in the Covid shortened season. Not great, but either was the roster around LaVine.
That roster had inexperienced players such as White, Williams, Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter sprinkled with veterans who were on their last legs in Garrett Temple, Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky. The 2024-25 Chicago Bulls have a better roster on paper. The young players have NBA experience and they much deeper than in that season. If LaVine comes in with the right mindset, his fit alongside Giddey and White should be better than with DeRozan.