As the baseball season winds down, Aaron Judge stands tall, quite literally and figuratively, as one of the most electrifying players the game has ever seen. With jaw-dropping power, record-breaking home runs, and a larger-than-life presence, Judge has captivated the hearts of fans and sportswriters alike. The Yankee slugger’s 2024 campaign has been nothing short of legendary, drawing comparisons to the all-time greats of the sport. But here’s the kicker: despite his season for the ages, winning the American League MVP award is far from a guarantee.
For many, it seems unfathomable that Judge might be overlooked for the MVP, but a deeper dive into the numbers, context, and voting tendencies reveals that the race is more contentious than most realize.
The Historic Season That Wasn’t Enough?
Aaron Judge’s stat line this year is a marvel: over 50 home runs, a .300+ batting average, and a near-unstoppable OPS that’s off the charts. But while Judge’s offensive output is undeniable, MVP voting often hinges on factors beyond just numbers. Voters are human, and as history shows, the MVP race is rarely decided by stats alone. Despite Judge’s unprecedented performance, his team’s inconsistent play might weigh heavily against him. The Yankees have struggled, teetering on the edge of playoff contention, and for many MVP voters, team success plays a critical role.
Consider the precedent set by previous MVP races. Players like Mike Trout, who posted MVP-caliber numbers on non-contending teams, found themselves losing out to stars whose contributions directly propelled their teams into October. Judge’s Herculean efforts may not be enough to compensate for the Yankees’ underwhelming season, and that’s a narrative voters could lean into.
The Shohei Ohtani Factor
Then there’s the Shohei Ohtani factor—a looming shadow over any MVP conversation. Ohtani, the two-way sensation, continues to defy logic with his dual talents as a slugger and ace pitcher. Even on a middling Angels squad, Ohtani’s combination of pitching dominance and hitting prowess makes him a perpetual MVP favorite. The mere fact that Ohtani is competing at an elite level both on the mound and at the plate puts him in a category that Judge simply can’t touch.
While Judge’s numbers are incredible, they don’t include a sub-3.00 ERA or double-digit strikeout games. Ohtani’s ability to impact the game in more ways than any other player gives him an almost unfair advantage. For some voters, the novelty and unprecedented nature of Ohtani’s achievements overshadow Judge’s power surge.
The Bias Against One-Dimensional Players
Another controversial element in the MVP debate is the perception of “one-dimensional” players. Judge, for all his home run prowess, is still seen by some as primarily a slugger. Defensive metrics are favorable, but they pale in comparison to the impact of a two-way star like Ohtani or a versatile infielder like Corey Seager, who adds Gold Glove defense to his offensive arsenal.
Judge’s value is tied predominantly to his bat, and while that bat is among the most potent in baseball history, the MVP narrative often favors players who contribute in multiple facets of the game. This bias against power hitters—viewed as replaceable or overly reliant on home runs—can lead voters to favor more “complete” players, even if their overall impact isn’t as dramatic.
The New Wave of Analytics
The sabermetric revolution has also changed how MVP cases are judged. Advanced metrics like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WPA (Win Probability Added) provide a broader picture of a player’s overall impact on winning. While Judge’s traditional stats are among the best, his WAR does not overwhelmingly eclipse his competition, particularly Ohtani’s combined WAR as a hitter and pitcher. Voters increasingly rely on these numbers to guide their decisions, often to the detriment of players like Judge whose value is primarily offensive.
Furthermore, stats like clutch hitting and situational impact can sway opinions. If Judge’s numbers are padded by blowouts or meaningless games in the standings, it could hurt his candidacy in the eyes of some analysts and voters.
Voter Fatigue and the Narrative Trap
Finally, there’s the intangible but significant influence of voter fatigue and narrative. Judge was a runner-up in past MVP races, and voters sometimes shy away from awarding the same player repeatedly unless they do something truly transcendent. For Judge, being overshadowed by Ohtani or even another breakout star like Julio Rodríguez is a distinct possibility.
Narratives drive MVP voting, and while Judge’s towering home runs create highlight reels, Ohtani’s dual performances and other competitors’ “feel-good” stories resonate in different ways. Voters might gravitate towards the more compelling storylines, even if they don’t necessarily reflect the raw stats.
Conclusion: Judge Deserves It, But Don’t Count on It
Aaron Judge’s season is one for the ages—there’s no denying that. He has carried the Yankees, thrilled fans, and written himself into the record books. But the AL MVP race is never just about the best numbers; it’s about the best narrative, the most complete player, and sometimes, about what catches the voters’ imagination. Judge’s path to MVP glory is littered with obstacles, and while he deserves it on merit, the politics and peculiarities of MVP voting mean that nothing is guaranteed.
In a perfect world, Judge would be the undisputed MVP. But in the world of MLB’s award season, perfection rarely wins the day.