Alabama’s Slim Path to the College Football Playoff: “Lots of Help and a Prayer”
For years, Alabama has been a fixture in the College Football Playoff (CFP), often dominating the landscape with its elite talent and storied coach, Nick Saban. But in 2024, the Crimson Tide find themselves in an unfamiliar position: on the outside looking in. With the 12-team playoff just weeks away, Alabama’s chances of making the field are slim, requiring a series of improbable upsets and a little bit of luck.
Sitting just outside the top 12 in the CFP rankings, Alabama’s struggles this season stem from a combination of an early-season loss to Texas and close calls in SEC play. While they’ve improved as the season progressed, their schedule strength and inconsistency have left them needing external factors to fall in their favor.
The Tide boast a 10-1 record heading into their final regular-season game against Auburn and the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. However, even a win over Georgia, the nation’s top-ranked team, may not be enough to guarantee a playoff berth. With multiple Power 5 teams ahead of them and a logjam of one-loss teams in contention, Alabama needs what ESPN analysts have dubbed “lots of help and a prayer.”
To sneak into the 12-team playoff, Alabama needs chaos across the college football landscape. Specifically, the Tide require several upsets to clear the path for their inclusion:
- Miami Losing to Syracuse: Miami, currently ranked just ahead of Alabama, faces Syracuse in a game where Alabama fans will be rooting hard for an upset. A loss by Miami would be one less obstacle in Alabama’s path.
- Notre Dame Losing to USC: Notre Dame has consistently remained in the CFP discussion despite a couple of losses. A defeat at the hands of their archrival, USC, would all but eliminate them from contention, giving Alabama more breathing room.
- ther Top Teams Falling: Alabama also needs help from teams in other conferences. This includes:
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- Oregon or Washington faltering in the Pac-12 Championship.
- Texas, who holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama, dropping its Big 12 title game.
- Louisville potentially losing to a middling ACC opponent.
Essentially, Alabama needs a cascade of unexpected outcomes to disrupt the standings and open the door for their entry.
Even if chaos unfolds elsewhere, Alabama’s CFP hopes hinge on their ability to take down Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia, unbeaten and the defending national champion, represents the ultimate challenge. A win over the Bulldogs would significantly bolster Alabama’s resume, giving them a marquee victory to sway the CFP committee.
However, defeating Georgia is no small task. The Bulldogs have been dominant on both sides of the ball, and their roster depth poses a challenge for any opponent. Alabama will need to play a near-perfect game, relying on quarterback Jalen Milroe to deliver in the clutch and their defense to contain Georgia’s high-powered offense
This is the first year of the expanded 12-team playoff, and Alabama is one of the programs adjusting to the new landscape. While the 12-team format was designed to allow more teams access to the postseason, it has also created tighter competition for the final spots. Teams from lesser-known conferences with strong records, such as Tulane or Liberty, could claim automatic bids, further complicating Alabama’s path.
Additionally, the Tide face stiff competition from other one-loss Power 5 teams, including Texas, Ohio State, and Oregon. The expanded playoff hasn’t made the road easier for Alabama—in fact, it may have made it more difficult given the crowded field of contenders.
As Nick Saban and his team prepare for the final stretch of the season, they understand the precariousness of their situation. In past years, Alabama controlled its destiny. Now, they must rely on a series of unlikely events to go their way.
For Alabama fans, it’s an uncomfortable position to be in, watching other teams and hoping for upsets rather than celebrating another dominant season. While the Tide’s playoff hopes are not entirely extinguished, the chances of all necessary scenarios aligning are slim.
Whether Alabama can capitalize on a chaotic finish to the season remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: they’ll need more than just their own efforts to earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff.