Another day, another round of hot takes from Neil Payne, and this time, his NCAA Tournament projections are raising eyebrows across the college basketball world. His latest analysis gives North Carolina a whopping 89% chance to make the tournament, while Louisville surprisingly holds the sixth-best chance in the ACC at 59%.
Is 89% Too Low for UNC?
For a team like North Carolina, which has consistently been one of the top programs in college basketball history, 89% might actually seem too low. The Tar Heels have been dominant in the ACC and have proven they can compete with the best teams in the country. RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, and the rest of Hubert Davis’ squad have been playing at a high level, making them a near-lock for the tournament in most fans’ eyes.
Given their strong resume and national ranking, it’s fair to question why Payne didn’t place UNC closer to a 95% or higher probability. At this point in the season, barring a complete collapse, North Carolina is almost certainly going dancing in March.
Louisville at 59%? Really?
The most puzzling part of Payne’s analysis is Louisville being the sixth-most likely ACC team to make the tournament at 59%. Considering how inconsistent Louisville has been, this number feels generous at best. Kenny Payne’s squad has had flashes of potential, but their struggles have been well-documented, making them far from a tournament lock.
Several other ACC teams, like Wake Forest, Virginia, and Syracuse, may have stronger cases at this point in the season. If Louisville is indeed at 59%, they’ll need to prove it with consistent play down the stretch, something they haven’t shown in recent seasons.
The Reaction: Fans Aren’t Buying It
As expected, these numbers have sparked plenty of debate among fans and analysts. Some North Carolina supportersbelieve their 89% chance is underrating the Tar Heels, while others are outright laughing at Louisville’s high placement in the ACC rankings.
Social media has been flooded with reactions, with some fans calling Payne’s analysis “ridiculous” and others labeling it “just another example of faulty analytics.”
One thing is clear: these projections will only add more fuel to the fire as teams battle for seeding and positioning ahead of Selection Sunday. For now, both UNC and Louisville will need to prove on the court whether these numbers hold any real weight.